A live study · running on this hub
We re-ran the code behind 173 papers.
Not "does the PDF look right" — we built each repo, ran the experiment, and checked the headline number against what the paper claimed, with a tolerance fixed in advance. Here's what came out.
173 attempted · updating as the batch runs
73%
reproduced their headline result as shipped
127 of 173 papers, within a pre-registered tolerance
84%
even built & ran at all
the rest failed to build or crashed on launch
87%
matched, given the code produced a number
so even when it runs, the number often disagrees
Every outcome, honestly
One bar, 173 papers. Failures aren't noise — they're the finding.
127 reproduced as shipped 19 ran, but the number didn't match 9 built, but the experiment crashed 11 environment wouldn't build 7 exceeded the time budget
Where papers drop off
Most of the loss happens before a number is ever produced — an environment/packaging gap, not a wrong result.
attempted
173 · 100%
environment built
162 · 94%
ran to completion
146 · 84%
produced a number
146 · 84%
matched the claim
127 · 73%
Packaging predicts reproduction
Papers shipped with a clean, pinned environment reproduce far more often than a bare repo — direct evidence for machine-actionable packaging.
pip_env
109/128 · 85%
repo_artifact
18/39 · 46%
pip
0/6 · 0%
Every paper, one tile
173 papers, 173 tiles — colored by what happened. Hover for the paper; the hub owns the assertion, so authors can't self-pass.
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✓ reproduced
≠ ran, off / no number
✗ wouldn't build / crashed / timed out
Full table claimed vs got, per paper
| paper | outcome | claimed | got | err |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| anomaly-ecod-internetads-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.676 | 0.677 | 0.148% |
| anomaly-ecod-spambase-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.701 | 0.6556 | 6.476% |
| anomaly-ecod-speech-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.485 | 0.4697 | 3.155% |
| anomaly-ecod-stamps-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.939 | 0.8761 | 6.699% |
| anomaly-ecod-wdbc-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.983 | 0.9706 | 1.261% |
| anomaly-hbos-breastw-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.983 | 0.9851 | 0.214% |
| anomaly-hbos-cardio-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.835 | 0.8377 | 0.323% |
| anomaly-hbos-hepatitis-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.796 | 0.7887 | 0.917% |
| anomaly-hbos-internetads-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.699 | 0.683 | 2.289% |
| anomaly-hbos-lympho-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.996 | 0.9977 | 0.171% |
| anomaly-hbos-mammography-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.834 | 0.8299 | 0.492% |
| anomaly-hbos-optdigits-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.873 | 0.8702 | 0.321% |
| anomaly-hbos-pima-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.659 | 0.6858 | 4.067% |
| anomaly-hbos-satellite-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.758 | 0.7659 | 1.042% |
| anomaly-hbos-satimage2-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.98 | 0.9716 | 0.857% |
| anomaly-hbos-spambase-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.67 | 0.6627 | 1.09% |
| anomaly-hbos-speech-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.454 | 0.4757 | 4.78% |
| anomaly-hbos-stamps-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.918 | 0.9047 | 1.449% |
| anomaly-hbos-waveform-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.683 | 0.6879 | 0.717% |
| anomaly-hbos-wbc-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.982 | 0.9883 | 0.642% |
| anomaly-hbos-wdbc-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.967 | 0.9616 | 0.558% |
| anomaly-hbos-wpbc-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.536 | 0.5447 | 1.623% |
| anomaly-knn-breastw-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.976 | 0.9765 | 0.051% |
| anomaly-knn-cardio-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.724 | 0.7127 | 1.561% |
| anomaly-knn-ionosphere-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.919 | 0.9259 | 0.751% |
| anomaly-knn-lympho-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.975 | 0.9988 | 2.441% |
| anomaly-knn-mammography-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.841 | 0.8387 | 0.273% |
| anomaly-knn-satellite-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.684 | 0.6775 | 0.95% |
| anomaly-knn-satimage2-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.954 | 0.9364 | 1.845% |
| anomaly-knn-speech-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.458 | 0.4862 | 6.157% |
| anomaly-knn-stamps-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.874 | 0.8241 | 5.709% |
| anomaly-knn-waveform-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.74 | 0.7684 | 3.838% |
| anomaly-knn-wbc-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.972 | 0.9941 | 2.274% |
| anomaly-knn-wdbc-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.927 | 0.9992 | 7.789% |
| anomaly-knn-wpbc-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.526 | 0.5208 | 0.989% |
| anomaly-lof-cardio-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.574 | 0.5471 | 4.686% |
| anomaly-lof-internetads-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.606 | 0.6485 | 7.013% |
| anomaly-lof-ionosphere-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.86 | 0.8609 | 0.105% |
| anomaly-lof-lympho-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.977 | 0.9777 | 0.072% |
| anomaly-lof-mammography-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.729 | 0.7204 | 1.18% |
| anomaly-lof-satellite-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.557 | 0.5428 | 2.549% |
| anomaly-lof-speech-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.471 | 0.5075 | 7.749% |
| anomaly-lof-stamps-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.739 | 0.6888 | 6.793% |
| anomaly-lof-waveform-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.735 | 0.7336 | 0.19% |
| anomaly-lof-wpbc-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.511 | 0.5184 | 1.448% |
| anomaly-ocsvm-breastw-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.961 | 0.9787 | 1.842% |
| anomaly-ocsvm-cardio-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.935 | 0.9352 | 0.021% |
| anomaly-ocsvm-lympho-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.976 | 0.9906 | 1.496% |
| anomaly-ocsvm-mammography-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.872 | 0.8721 | 0.011% |
| anomaly-ocsvm-optdigits-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.5 | 0.5037 | 0.74% |
| anomaly-ocsvm-speech-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.447 | 0.4666 | 4.385% |
| anomaly-ocsvm-stamps-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.88 | 0.8517 | 3.216% |
| anomaly-ocsvm-wbc-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.975 | 0.9817 | 0.687% |
| anomaly-ocsvm-wpbc-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.498 | 0.4743 | 4.759% |
| anomaly-pca-breastw-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.959 | 0.9556 | 0.355% |
| anomaly-pca-cardio-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.0% |
| anomaly-pca-cardiotocography-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.755 | 0.7523 | 0.358% |
| anomaly-pca-hepatitis-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.804 | 0.752 | 6.468% |
| anomaly-pca-ionosphere-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.787 | 0.7841 | 0.368% |
| anomaly-pca-lympho-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.985 | 0.9965 | 1.168% |
| anomaly-pca-mammography-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.882 | 0.8938 | 1.338% |
| anomaly-pca-pima-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.655 | 0.6484 | 1.008% |
| anomaly-pca-satellite-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.599 | 0.6012 | 0.367% |
| anomaly-pca-satimage2-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.982 | 0.9772 | 0.489% |
| anomaly-pca-spambase-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.555 | 0.5503 | 0.847% |
| anomaly-pca-speech-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.45 | 0.4692 | 4.267% |
| anomaly-pca-stamps-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.917 | 0.9069 | 1.101% |
| anomaly-pca-waveform-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.634 | 0.6395 | 0.868% |
| anomaly-pca-wbc-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.974 | 0.9934 | 1.992% |
| anomaly-pca-wdbc-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.929 | 0.986 | 6.136% |
| anomaly-pca-wine-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.801 | 0.8059 | 0.612% |
| anomaly-pca-wpbc-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.496 | 0.4825 | 2.722% |
| catboost-default-vs-tuned | REPRODUCED | 0.27 | 0.2749 | 1.815% |
| ecod-breastw-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.993 | 0.9914 | 0.161% |
| ecod-cardio-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.897 | 0.935 | 4.236% |
| ecod-lympho-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.993 | 0.9953 | 0.232% |
| ecod-mammography-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.894 | 0.9062 | 1.365% |
| ecod-satimage2-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.985 | 0.9649 | 2.041% |
| ecod-shuttle-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.99 | 0.9929 | 0.293% |
| ecod-wbc-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.974 | 0.9948 | 2.136% |
| graph-deepwalk-blogcatalog-microf1 | REPRODUCED | 0.4151 | 0.4117319988879622 | 0.811% |
| graph-pygcn-cora-acc | REPRODUCED | 0.815 | 0.836 | 2.577% |
| graph-surprise-coclustering-ml100k-rmse | REPRODUCED | 0.963 | 0.97 | 0.727% |
| graph-surprise-knnbaseline-ml100k-rmse | REPRODUCED | 0.931 | 0.93 | 0.107% |
| graph-surprise-nmf-ml100k-rmse | REPRODUCED | 0.963 | 0.9626 | 0.042% |
| graph-surprise-slopeone-ml100k-rmse | REPRODUCED | 0.946 | 0.9456 | 0.042% |
| graph-surprise-svd-ml100k-rmse | REPRODUCED | 0.934 | 0.9364 | 0.257% |
| graph-vgae-cora-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.914 | 0.9094729034418444 | 0.495% |
| hdbscan-blobs-ari | REPRODUCED | 0.9 | 0.9692 | 7.689% |
| hmmlearn-gaussian-hmm | REPRODUCED | 0.0 | 0.0074 | 0.74% |
| imbalanced-learn-smote-f1 | REPRODUCED | 0.0 | 0.1724 | 17.24% |
| lightgbm-speedup-claim | REPRODUCED | 20.0 | 11.17 | 44.15% |
| ml-copod-breastw-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.9936 | 0.9944 | 0.081% |
| ml-copod-cardio-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.8974 | 0.9219 | 2.73% |
| ml-denmune-aggregation-ari | REPRODUCED | 0.99 | 0.9927 | 0.273% |
| ml-devnet-annthyroid-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.783 | 0.781 | 0.255% |
| ml-gmm-iris-ari | REPRODUCED | 0.9 | 0.9039 | 0.433% |
| ml-isoforest-digits-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.95 | 0.9865 | 3.842% |
| ml-lof-synthetic-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.99 | 0.999 | 0.909% |
| ml-pidforest-mammography-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.84 | 0.8469 | 0.821% |
| ml-pidforest-satimage2-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.982 | 0.9786 | 0.346% |
| ml-pidforest-thyroid-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.876 | 0.8825 | 0.742% |
| ml-pyod-knn-synthetic-auc | REPRODUCED | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% |
| ml-quickshiftpp-blobs-ari | REPRODUCED | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% |
| ml-spectral-moons-ari | REPRODUCED | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% |
| ml-umap-digits-trustworthiness | REPRODUCED | 0.97 | 0.9889 | 1.948% |
| nlp-crfsuite-conll2002-f1 | REPRODUCED | 0.77 | 0.7965 | 3.442% |
| nlp-langid-identification-acc | REPRODUCED | 0.94 | 1.0 | 6.383% |
| nlp-nltk-naivebayes-movie-acc | REPRODUCED | 0.8 | 0.81 | 1.25% |
| nlp-rankbm25-retrieval-mrr | REPRODUCED | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% |
| prophet-cv-mape | REPRODUCED | 0.1 | 0.0743 | 25.7% |
| river-phishing-acc | REPRODUCED | 0.8879 | 0.8928 | 0.552% |
| sb3-ppo-cartpole | REPRODUCED | 500.0 | 500.0 | 0.0% |
| sentence-transformers-sts-spearman | REPRODUCED | 0.85 | 0.8203 | 3.494% |
| sklearn-20newsgroups-tfidf | REPRODUCED | 0.88 | 0.882 | 0.227% |
| sklearn-digits-svm-acc | REPRODUCED | 0.97 | 0.9689 | 0.113% |
| ts-darts-airpassengers | REPRODUCED | 5.11 | 5.11 | 0.0% |
| ts-dlinear-etth1 | REPRODUCED | 0.375 | 0.3841443955898285 | 2.439% |
| ts-mabwiser-sim | REPRODUCED | 0.9 | 0.986 | 9.556% |
| ts-minirocket-ucr | REPRODUCED | 0.969 | 0.9602 | 0.908% |
| ts-nlinear-etth1 | REPRODUCED | 0.374 | 0.3737042248249054 | 0.079% |
| ts-pymc-coinflip | REPRODUCED | 0.6667 | 0.6654 | 0.195% |
| ts-pyro-eightschools | REPRODUCED | 4.4 | 6.597 | 49.932% |
| ts-qlearning-taxi | REPRODUCED | 7.9 | 7.9 | 0.0% |
| ts-rocket-ucr | REPRODUCED | 0.969 | 0.9611 | 0.815% |
| ts-statsforecast-m4 | REPRODUCED | 0.94 | 0.954 | 1.489% |
| xgboost-higgs-auc | REPRODUCED | 0.84 | 0.8243 | 1.869% |
| anomaly-hbos-ionosphere-auc | DIVERGED | 0.552 | 0.6421 | 16.322% |
| anomaly-lof-breastw-auc | DIVERGED | 0.47 | 0.3889 | 17.255% |
| anomaly-lof-satimage2-auc | DIVERGED | 0.458 | 0.54 | 17.904% |
| anomaly-lof-wbc-auc | DIVERGED | 0.932 | 0.8315 | 10.783% |
| anomaly-ocsvm-ionosphere-auc | DIVERGED | 0.838 | 0.7395 | 11.754% |
| anomaly-ocsvm-satimage2-auc | DIVERGED | 0.998 | 0.4209 | 57.826% |
| gensim-word2vec-analogy | DIVERGED | 0.6 | 0.2883 | 51.95% |
| graph-edmot-cora-modularity | DIVERGED | 0.4088 | 0.8151193777541244 | 99.393% |
| ml-denmune-jain-ari | DIVERGED | 1.0 | 0.2355 | 76.45% |
| ml-finch-mnist10k-nmi | DIVERGED | 0.8905 | 0.9755 | 9.545% |
| ml-kmeans-digits-nmi | DIVERGED | 0.74 | 0.6264 | 15.351% |
| nanogpt-shakespeare-gpu | DIVERGED | 1.47 | 1.8857 | 28.279% |
| nlp-glove-analogy-acc | DIVERGED | 75.0 | 23.23 | 69.027% |
| nlp-textcnn-mr-acc | DIVERGED | 76.1 | 45.3125 | 40.457% |
| node2vec-linkpred-auc | DIVERGED | 0.97 | 0.7599 | 21.66% |
| ts-statsmodels-sarimax-airline | DIVERGED | 1022.299 | 922.205 | 9.791% |
| ts-thompson-bernoulli-regret | DIVERGED | 21.0 | 10.96 | 47.81% |
| tslearn-dtw-knn-ucr | DIVERGED | 0.9 | 1.0 | 11.111% |
| umap-mnist-runtime | DIVERGED | 42.0 | 129.54 | 208.429% |
| graph-ncf-neumf-ml1m-hr10 | RUN_FAILED | 0.73 | — | |
| ml-suod-cardio-iforest-auc | RUN_FAILED | 0.9216 | — | |
| nlp-doc2vec-imdb-acc | RUN_FAILED | 0.87 | — | |
| nlp-fasttext-dbpedia-p1 | RUN_FAILED | 0.98 | — | |
| nlp-fasttext1607-agnews-acc | RUN_FAILED | 92.5 | — | |
| nlp-nbsvm-imdb-acc | RUN_FAILED | 91.55 | — | |
| nlp-sif-sts-correlation | RUN_FAILED | 0.717 | — | |
| nlp-vader-tweets-f1 | RUN_FAILED | 0.96 | — | |
| ts-pmdarima-wineind | RUN_FAILED | 2908.093 | — | |
| beir-bm25-anserini-ndcg | BUILD_FAILED | 0.65 | — | |
| graph-openne-node2vec-wiki-microf1 | BUILD_FAILED | 0.651 | — | |
| huggingface-bert-glue-gpu | BUILD_FAILED | 0.93 | — | |
| nlp-brightmart-textcnn-acc | BUILD_FAILED | 0.65 | — | |
| nlp-flair-sentiment-acc | BUILD_FAILED | 1.0 | — | |
| nlp-textcnn-mindspore-sst2 | BUILD_FAILED | 0.7971 | — | |
| nlp-textcnn-sst2-acc | BUILD_FAILED | 85.99 | — | |
| pomegranate-hmm-speedup | BUILD_FAILED | 13 | — | |
| pyserini-bm25-beir-ndcg | BUILD_FAILED | 0.679 | — | |
| ts-deeppilco-cartpole | BUILD_FAILED | 0.1 | — | |
| vit-pytorch-cifar-gpu | BUILD_FAILED | 0.88 | — | |
| graph-pygat-cora-acc | TIMEOUT | 0.84 | — | |
| nlp-han-agnews-acc | TIMEOUT | 92.7 | — | |
| nlp-scapt-absa-restaurant-acc | TIMEOUT | 90.0 | — | |
| nlp-simcse-sts-spearman | TIMEOUT | 76.25 | — | |
| ts-nbeats-m4 | TIMEOUT | 13.114 | — | |
| ts-nhits-ettm2 | TIMEOUT | 0.255 | — | |
| ts-sb3-dqn-mountaincar | TIMEOUT | -100.849 | — |
Read this number honestly
- This is a pilot. 173 papers, not a random sample of all science — a signal, not a population estimate.
- The sample is generous. Many are well-maintained library/tool papers; a random GitHub sample reproduces less, so this is closer to an upper bound.
- CPU-only, no GPU. GPU-dependent papers land in the failure modes by construction, not field-representativeness.
- "Reproduced as shipped" ≠ "true." It means the released code re-ran and the number held — the floor of trust, not the ceiling.
- Claims were pre-registered from each paper's own reported number and never tuned to pass.